Best 7 Decentralized Prediction Markets to Watch in 2024

As decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to expand, decentralized prediction markets are gaining traction as popular platforms for betting on the outcomes of real-world events. Below are seven decentralized prediction markets worth keeping an eye on in 2024.

1. Polymarket

Launched in 2020 by Shane Coplan, Polymarket is a leading decentralized prediction market built on Ethereum and Polygon. It enables users to wager on the outcomes of real-world events using the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin. Polymarket has grown rapidly, especially during major political events like the U.S. Presidential elections, thanks to its transparent operations and lower fees compared to traditional betting platforms. In July 2024, Polymarket’s trading volumes spiked to $380 million, driven by rising interest in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections. This event, the largest on the platform, has attracted over $505 million in bets.

Polymarket is distinguished by its community-centric approach and extensive market offerings, spanning politics, sports, entertainment, and more. It employs liquidity pools to ensure fair share pricing and real-time market valuations, while smart contracts automate bet settlements, boosting trust and minimizing human error. This platform’s ability to deliver real-time data and market sentiment makes it a valuable resource for both analysts and casual bettors, often providing insights more accurate than traditional polls.

2. Hedgehog Markets

Hedgehog Markets, launched in 2021 by former Google and Oscar Health engineer George Yu, is a decentralized prediction market platform on the Solana blockchain. It leverages Solana’s high-speed transactions and low fees to offer a smooth user experience for trading predictions on various events, including politics and economics. Hedgehog has garnered attention for its innovative approach, drawing significant seed funding to fuel its growth.

One of Hedgehog Markets’ standout features is its “no-loss markets,” blending traditional prediction markets with DeFi mechanisms. Participants can bet on outcomes without risking their initial capital, as their funds generate yield through DeFi protocols while the market remains open. This approach reduces risk for users and adds an engaging layer to prediction market participation. Hedgehog also uses smart contracts to execute trades and settlements instantly, ensuring transparency and eliminating intermediaries. The platform’s integration with stablecoins like USDC enhances its stability and accessibility for those interested in speculative trading on future events.

3. Projection Finance

Projection Finance is a decentralized prediction market platform launched in 2023, designed by a team of blockchain enthusiasts on the Ethereum blockchain. It aims to utilize blockchain technology’s transparency and security to offer users a dependable way to predict and bet on the outcomes of various events. Projection Finance automates the betting process using smart contracts, ensuring fair and intermediary-free transactions.

Projection Finance distinguishes itself through advanced DeFi features. Users can engage in prediction markets covering political events, cryptocurrency price movements, and sports outcomes. A unique aspect of this platform is its use of liquidity pools to enhance market efficiency and provide better odds for participants. Additionally, Projection Finance incorporates a staking mechanism, allowing users to earn rewards by providing liquidity or making accurate predictions. This dual approach encourages participation while keeping the markets liquid and appealing to a diverse user base. The platform’s user-friendly interface and robust security measures make it an attractive choice for both newcomers and seasoned users in the decentralized prediction market landscape.

4. SanR.app

SanR.app, launched in 2021, is a decentralized crypto forecasting platform developed by the Santiment team, a recognized provider of on-chain and social metrics for the cryptocurrency market. Built on the Ethereum blockchain, SanR.app uses smart contracts to ensure transparency and automation in its operations. The platform helps users detect significant movements in the crypto market by analyzing various on-chain data and social signals.

SanR.app offers several unique features. It allows users to monetize their on-chain reputation by publishing market analysis signals, enabling traders and data scientists to identify key market signals and make informed predictions. The platform integrates SocialFi elements, enabling users to follow top traders and their signals on-chain, enhancing transparency and trust. SanR’s ability to provide real-time market forecasts is particularly beneficial for traders aiming to capitalize on market trends, creating a more informed and data-driven trading environment.

5. PlotX

PlotX, introduced in October 2020 by Ish Goel and Kartic Rakhra, is a decentralized prediction market protocol on the Ethereum blockchain. Often referred to as the "Uniswap of Prediction Markets," PlotX uses an Automated Market Making (AMM) algorithm to facilitate market creation, settlement, and reward distribution without counterparty risk. It allows users to predict outcomes on various crypto pairs like BTC, ETH, and YFI, with markets available in intervals of 1 hour, 1 day, and 1 week.

With a user base of over 200,000, PlotX stands out for its non-custodial nature, ensuring users retain control over their funds at all times. The platform's AMM algorithm maintains liquidity and provides real-time market pricing, while on-chain governance powered by GovBlocks allows PLOT token holders to participate in the platform's decision-making processes. PlotX focuses on high-yield prediction markets, offering instant rewards and short market cycles, which appeal to traders looking for quick returns on their market insights. The platform’s integration with Polygon offers faster, cheaper transactions, enhancing the overall user experience and expanding its accessibility.

6. DexWin

DexWin, launched in 2022, operates as a decentralized prediction market platform on the Azuro protocol, with a strong focus on sports betting. Utilizing the Ethereum and Polygon blockchains, DexWin offers seamless and gasless transactions, reducing costs and enhancing user convenience. This setup ensures quick deposits and withdrawals, all managed through audited smart contracts that guarantee security and trust.

DexWin sets itself apart by offering gasless transactions on the Polygon network, significantly lowering transaction fees. The platform’s commitment to providing the highest betting odds globally makes it an appealing choice for bettors. DexWin supports various sports, including NBA and NCAA basketball, with plans to expand into other sports like football and tennis. The platform also offers a range of betting options, from simple wagers to complex parlays, along with decentralized casino games like dice, coin flip, and slots. By allowing users to place bets with stablecoins like USDT, DexWin ensures the stability and security of user funds, even during volatile market conditions.

7. Oriole Insights

Launched in early 2024, Oriole Insights is a decentralized prediction market platform designed to enhance market sentiment analysis and forecasting accuracy. Operating on the Polygon blockchain, Oriole Insights harnesses the power of collective wisdom to enable users to predict cryptocurrency price movements and other market events. The platform provides a robust environment for both novices and experts to share predictions and insights.

Oriole Insights features an UP/DOWN prediction market where users can forecast whether an asset's price will rise or fall, offering a straightforward way to capture market sentiment. It also offers ROI and initial listing prediction markets, allowing users to predict the initial pricing of new coins or tokens during their listing. The platform implements a reputation and rewards system, where users’ accurate predictions enhance their credibility within the community. Oriole Insights plans to transition to more decentralized operations, with smart contracts ensuring transparency and trust. The platform’s analytical tools and comprehensive dashboard provide a robust environment for users to engage in predictive forecasting and refine their market strategies.

Upcoming: Drift Protocol

Drift Protocol, a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX) launched in 2021, is expanding its offerings to include a prediction marketplace. Initially gaining prominence as a perpetual DEX with over 195,000 users and more than $34.5 billion in trading volume, Drift is set to launch its prediction market in mid-August 2024. This new feature will allow users to trade on future event outcomes in a fully decentralized and permissionless manner, utilizing Solana’s high-speed, low-cost infrastructure for an efficient experience.

Drift Protocol’s prediction marketplace offers unique features, such as trading prediction markets using any asset, providing greater flexibility and accessibility. The platform is designed to be user-friendly, supporting both email signups and Solana wallet connectivity. A key feature is "The Election Center," dedicated to U.S. Presidential election predictions, featuring a fun interface where users can trade PolitFi meme coins like TREMP and KAMA. Drift also plans to integrate Solana Blinks technology, enabling prediction market interactions directly within social media platforms. This innovative approach, combined with Solana’s high performance, positions Drift Protocol to challenge established prediction markets like Polymarket, attracting more users and liquidity to the Solana ecosystem.

Upcoming: Seer

Seer (In Development) is a highly anticipated decentralized prediction market game from the innovative developers at Rollspace. Built on the Blast L2 Ethereum scaling solution, Seer offers a gamified prediction experience where users can wager crypto and earn ETH rewards for accurate forecasts. Unlike traditional prediction markets, Seer is designed with engaging gameplay elements to make the experience more interactive and enjoyable. While specific prediction categories and game mechanics are still under wraps, Seer's focus on user experience and gamification has already generated significant buzz in the decentralized prediction market community. With its launch approaching, Seer is set to become a key player in shaping the future of this dynamic space.